Watch the Webinar
Panellist: Julian Talbot
Recorded: 25 Aug `21
In his 2008 book ‘Fooled by Randomness‘ Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduced the theory of Black Swan events. He then turned that into the highly successful book ‘The Black Swan‘ which is where the idea really caught the public imagination.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the concept already, Wikipedia summarizes it as follows.
“The black swan theory … is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after the first European encounter with them.”
The theory was developed by Taleb to explain the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
And it’s a great concept. I love the idea.